Recap: An Uncertain Future: How the Immigration Crackdown Threatens the Massachusetts Labor Force

On June 4, Lee Pelton offered opening remarks at a forum convened for the release of a new report, An Uncertain Future: How the Immigration Crackdown Threatens Massachusetts’ Labor Force—for likely the final such occasion in his tenure as Boston Foundation President and CEO. Playing off the title of the report produced by MassINC Policy Center in partnership with TBF’s Boston Indicators research team, Pelton said, “There is nothing uncertain about the vital contributions immigrants make every day to our economic, civic, and cultural life.” This understanding has driven TBF’s work since its inception, he observed, from its earliest grants going to support immigrants in Boston around World War I to this year’s Meeting the Moment: Supporting Our Immigrant Neighbors effort, which recently granted $1 million to immigrant-serving organizations in Greater Boston. He mentioned topline numbers from the work—that one in five Massachusetts residents is foreign-born, as are 27 percent of our entrepreneurs and 40 percent of our Main Street business owners—but importantly, he added, “Behind every number is a neighbor. And when our immigrant neighbors are threatened, we must not be silent.”

Report co-author and Boston Indicators Senior Research Analyst Kimberly Goulart presented more data on immigration’s importance to the Massachusetts economy, including trends in overall population and industries reliant on immigrant workers. “Immigration has long been key to prosperity in New England,” she said, from the fishing industry to the textile boom to today’s healthcare sector. State data lag federal data, and both lag policy changes, but 21^st century figures point to a 20-year national trend of net immigration hovering around 1 million per year, with a big dip at the height of COVID-19 and a rebound to more than 2 million in 2024. From that peak it sharply dropped to the mean and projections indicate it will continue a steep decline, pushed by the current president’s policies ranging from capricious ICE raids to bureaucratic hits like H1B visa fees of $100,000. “In Massachusetts, net immigration could drop below 30,000. We’re likely to face labor shortages because of Trump policies,” said Goulart. “The Commonwealth would lose billions in economic activity.”

Co-author Ben Forman, director of the MassINC Policy Center, zoomed in on the effect of interrupted immigration on Massachusetts’ 29 “Gateway Cities.” In many cases, these aging cities have been rejuvenated by immigrant communities. “Gateway Cities make up about 25 percent of state residents,” Forman shared, “but 40 percent of our foreign-born population and over half of new arrivals. Twenty years ago, they weren’t (all) immigrant hubs. But we’ve seen new arrivals reclaim boarded-up storefronts and blighted housing. They bring energy, their culture, and food to the neighborhoods and have helped Gateway Cities get over a sense of being has-beens and forgotten.” He noted that these once important mill cities and factory towns have been returning to health not by producing manufactured goods but by nurturing people. “Our future workforce is being minted and prepared by these communities disproportionately.” Large, sudden inflows of population can create challenges for these municipalities. And while that discomfort can sway opinion—last election, Fall River voted Republican for the first time in 100 years—the data show no real evidence that academic results are effected long term or that housing costs would have been lower or wages higher without an increase in the foreign-born population.

A panel and audience discussion followed, moderated by Eva Millona, Foundation Fellow at Eastern Bank Foundation and Visiting Fellow at Harvard Graduate School of Education. As former head of Massachusetts Immigrant & Refugee Advocacy Coalition, she has a 360-degree view of immigration issues in the Commonwealth. She stressed that politically, “we have succeeded in making border security the top issue that everyone focuses on, but we have done nothing for the security of the workforce.” Acknowledging that the nation’s immigration system is overdue for adjustment—its last major reform having been in the pre- internet—she urged the convening to “think with a solution-oriented lens. How can we design a system that responds to the economy and times we are in, without being distracted by political blame?”

She asked her two panelists to share how the current immigration crackdown was affecting their respective businesses. Tara Gregorio, president and CEO of Mass Senior Care Association, talked about the preponderance of immigrants filling hands-on caregiving roles and how restrictions and uncertainty are shrinking that workforce. “We are headed to three workers per 75-year-old in the population overall. Loss of workers mean certified nursing assistants have to work overtime, risking burnout or substandard care. It means longer wait times for patients to get community-based services. That means backups in the hospital, in the ER, and so on. The impact is enormous and bad for everyone.”