Hard to count districts in Massachusetts could pose problems for 2020 census -- and cost state billions

In this March 15, 2010, file photo, copies of the 2010 Census forms in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File) (Ross D. Franklin)

A number of Massachusetts cities, including Lawrence, Lynn and Boston, have populations that are particularly hard to count in the U.S. Census, according to a new report.

If the state's population is not properly counted, billions of dollars in federal funding could be at stake.

A report released Wednesday by Boston Indicators, the research arm of the Boston Foundation, highlighted the difficulty that Massachusetts is likely to have getting an accurate count of the state's population in the 2020 census because of demographics and a new question.

"The potential undercount of Massachusetts residents has high stakes for communities from Pittsfield to Provincetown, not just because the count affects billions of dollars in federal funding, but because it can disproportionately underestimate numbers of especially vulnerable groups, resulting in a specific loss of programs that improve their opportunities to succeed," said Paul Grogan, president and CEO of the Boston Foundation, in a statement.

The census, conducted every 10 years, is used to decide how many congressional districts states will have. Massachusetts is not expected to lose or gain any seats. But the census could affect how state House and Senate districts are drawn. The census also governs federal funding for programs where funding is based on population. In fiscal 2015, Massachusetts received $16 billion in federal funding for programs like children's health care, housing assistance, education, and food assistance.

Historically, certain populations have always been hard to count: renters, people who live in group quarters like nursing homes, college dormitories or prisons, people who live in non-family households with roommates, people who speak uncommon languages and people with lower incomes and less education. College towns and immigrant-heavy neighborhoods are often difficult to count.

Around one in four Massachusetts census tracts are considered "hard-to-count," which means fewer than 73 percent of residents return the mailed census form.

Lawrence, Lynn, Malden and Lowell are considered the hardest to count communities, with more than 80 percent of residents living in census tracts designed "hard-to-count," according to the report. Boston ranks 7th, with 63 percent of residents in "hard-to-count" areas. Worcester is considered the 12th

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hardest to count, with 49 percent of residents living in these census tracts. Springfield ranks 16th, with 33 percent of residents in hard-to-count tracts.

In addition to the regular concerns, the authors of the report worry about a lack of funding and a new question in the upcoming census.

Congress has not yet passed a final budget for fiscal 2019, but President Donald Trump has proposed funding levels that are far below what the Census received for the last three counts. Plans for testing and outreach have already been canceled by the census because of a lack of funds. At the same time, response rates to initial census mailings have been falling, so more money is needed to follow up with individuals who do not respond.

There are also some changes to the census wording. Most notably, if it withstands a court challenge, the census will ask about U.S. citizenship. Some state officials have worried that this will depress response rates, since people without legal status will fear returning the questionnaire.

In addition, the Census Bureau plans to conduct this year's census mostly online for the first time, raising questions about security and participation rates.

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